Internet in China (Mar.2001)
Jin Xiaoming
Minister-Counselor
Embassy of the People
’s Republic of China
Ladies and Gentlemen:
(Greetings)
I am honored and privileged to be here today. I have been asked to speak on the Internet in China. To be honest, this is the last topic I wish to talk about. You know what -- somebody told me just before coming here, that whatever I say about the Internet in China, it must be wrong! The reason is that the Internet in China is changing so fast that whenever you say something about it, it has already changed. Well, that's a little exaggerated, but it is true to a certain degree. But the first thing I am sure of is that, although China embraced the internet much later than did most developed nations around the world, it is quickly catching up,
1. The fastest growth in the world
Let us first take a look at China
’s online population growth. Just 30 months ago, at the end of June 1998, there were only 1.1 million internet users in China. That number doubled in the next 6 months and reached 2.1 million by the end of that year. 6 months later, it reached 4 million, and in yet another 6 months it soared to 8.9 million. That is the end of 1999. You see what, it doubles every 6 months, or quadruples every year. To my knowledge, the world has never seen another large country experience such spectacular growth of users since the birth of Internet. This trend continued in the year 2000. The first half of last year saw another doubling to 16.9 million users, and the latest survey shows that the figure is well over 22.5 million.This trend, of course, is not supposed to go on and on forever, but I do believe that the number of Internet users in China will continue to grow at an incredible speed in the next 2 to 3 years. The bottom line is that China has now 144 million telephone subscribers. If every telephone line is connected to a computer, and if each computer can be shared by 1.5 persons, which is much lower than the current rate of 2.5 persons, the internet users in China will come up to 216 million, what is almost 10 times of the current figure of 22.5 million.
But you ain
’t seen nothing yet. According to the latest survey, more and more people exploit Internet accesses other than dial-up telephone lines. For every 2 dial-up users, there is another one who uses or partly uses ISDN or DSL. No doubt these users, especially the DSL subscribers, will account for an increasingly larger portion. That means, principally, we may see more than 300 million Chinese Internet users in the next several years, which will be almost equal to today's total English and European language Internet population.But you ain
’t seen nothing yet. The Chinese are famous for their fondness of wireless communication. At present there are over 85 million cellphone users, and they represent the second largest wireless population in the world. That means out of every 5 Chinese telephone users, 3 are using wireless devices. Wireless application protocol(WAP) technology could rapidly boost the online population by bringing the internet to China’s 85 million cellphone users; connections through cable to the over 100 million cable TV customers are also currently in trials. So, you will not say that I am crazy if I predict a Chinese online population of more than 500 million, which will be 25% more than the world’s total today.This prediction is indeed plausible because China is strongly committed to telecommunications infrastructure construction and has put in place a very competent infrastructure. Huge investment has poured both domestic and international projects like Asia-European and Sino-American optical fiber projects, as well as broadband satellite communications. China has completed its basic domestic backbone construction consisting of 8 east-west and 8 north-south optical fiber projects totaling some 140 000 miles. Several new domestic backbone projects are currently under construction, with a total designed capacity of tens of Gigabytes. The international bandwidth had reached 2.8 Gigabytes by the end of year 2000, and it is expected to reach 100 Gigabytes.
The Ministry of Information Industry, China
’s network regulator, has insisted that the major telecom provider, state-owned China Telecom lower it access charges, which have dropped to less that a third of the 1997 prices. China Telecom is also adding 2 million lines each month to meet the surging demand for network access.Over the last 3 years, an enormous amount of "content" in Chinese language has been put onto the Internet. This development is absolutely crucial because most Chinese Internet users do not read or speak English. In a survey taken in 1997, the biggest complaint of Chinese Internet users is the "lack of information in Chinese language", but when the same survey was taken in 1999 it was no longer the case. In the last survey taken in the year 2000, only 6.4% of the people considered the "lack of information in Chinese" their biggest concern. The amount of registered domain names ended with ". CN (read as
"dot CN")" has exceeded 120 thousand, not to mention the large number of Chinese websites which are not registered in the ".CN" category.
2. E-business
This prospect is exciting. Also exciting is that the e-business is getting started in China. By the end of the year 2000, 80% of the Chinese domain names were ended with
"dot com dot C N", whereas 2 years ago there were only 70% wearing such ".com.cn" names.Among the most distinctive Chinese Internet companies there are names such as Sina, Sohu and Netease. Their websites are regarded by most people as portals. Initial public offerings of these web companies on NASDAQ raised more than 400 million US dollars. Unfortunately, they are all having a difficult time now, given the recent wash-down of the dotcom business around the world. Among the three companies, Sina was voted by Chinese Internet users as the most influential website last year. Sina is an internationalized company. A majority of its investment is from international corporations and venture capitals, including Dell Computer Co., Singapore-based Creative Technology Ltd., Softbank Venture Capital and Japan-based Sumitomo Co. Last November they just invested another 60 million US dollars into Sina.
The most successful B to C Chinese Internet company is 8848, named after the height in meter of the Mount Everest, the world
’s highest mountain. Another popular Internet company is 3721, a website which offers "domain names in Chinese language" to its clients. Online stock trade is also popular in China. It gives birth to emeritus websites such as "www.yestock.com", "www.stockstar.com" and "www.homeway.com.cn".For B2B sites, they are not so popular but maybe more profitable. For example, some B2B websites in the construction business have worked quite well, as China has an awful lot of construction projects initiated every year and the volume of construction materials being traded is massive.
However, the e-business sector is still an infant in comparison with the booming of infrastructure. The biggest stumbling block in China's e-business is the absence of a credit system. China doesn't enjoy a well-established bank credit system like the one in the United States. Most Chinese do not have a credit card or a debit card either and they essentially rely on cash for their daily necessities. Therefore their capacity for on-line shopping is very limited. Moreover, the rule of law is not very well developed in China. Sometimes business frauds cannot be prosecuted and punished in a timely and effective manner, which has deepened the doubt on credibility of e-commerce.
3. Deep Impacts on Society
No doubt that the Internet is changing the ways of business, life and communication in China. Among the youths have evolved a large number of "web-worms" who hang on the Internet for hours everyday even at the cost of a big part of their income and time. One of their favorites is to stay in virtual forums and chatting-rooms, or play games online. Even the official newspaper the People's Daily has created its own virtual forum, namely, "For a Stronger China" Forum, where people can find a lot of very open political opinions. For example, recently when the Chinese National Peoples Congress was in cession, we saw some sharp criticisms of the government work report delivered by premier Zhu Rongji. Please bear in mind that this was on the official website of the
"People's Daily".The Internet is also changing the ways how government acts. The year 1999 was announced "the year for government online" and the Chinese government launched an initiative, aimed to ensue that 80 percent of all government agencies, both national and local, had Web sites by the end of 2000. Today there are about 5 thousand registered web sites with a domain name of ".gov.cn", and we can easily find out the newest government documents, such as regulations and legislation, on these websites.
But the government online is much more than a collection of documents, for government agencies are encouraged to perform some of their duties online. Some ministries, like the Ministry of Science and Technology, upgrade their website everyday with very specific information on their internal operations, like that a department of the ministry has held a meeting that day, and what they have discussed and agreed on. They can also work online. For example, a small business can apply on-line for the Small Business Innovation Fund created by the Ministry of Science and Technology. However, there are two concerns which may prevent governments from moving faster to work online. One is the concern about security. Another is the concern about identification, namely, the validity of digital signature which may call for the creation of a Third-party Certification System.
4. Legislation and Regulations
The fast growth of Internet in China has also raised some concerns. Firstly, it may lead to a chaotic market and worsen the regular business circle when uncontrollable oversupply happens. Secondly, there comes the perplexing question of
"big or small". For instance, as the monopoly over the telecommunications business by one single state-owned conglomerate had proven to be inefficient and harmful to consumer rights in the past, the Chinese government ordered the breakdown of China Telecom into 3 companies last year. But if the domestic telecommunications and Internet market was sliced into rugged pieces by hundreds of "small players", like the situation of Chinese automobile market, none of them will be able to reach the efficient scale of low cost and better services.Besides business concerns, there are concerns on national security. The Internet is capable of transferring large amounts of highly sensitive data, including those that are critical to the functioning of the whole society, such as financial, transportation and military information. It is understandable that China does not want the Internet and telecommunication industry, especially the infrastructure construction sector to fall under the control of foreign companies. On the other hand, China has committed itself to the opening of its market and will continue to do so in the future.
Another concern is about the possible negative impact on society of this new and fast growing technology. Generally speaking, the Chinese government has always held a steady stance of supporting the Internet and encouraged people to benefit from the full potential of the Internet. But the fast move towards a networked society has also raised some reasonable concerns in the general public and government departments. There is a widely accepted consensus in China that we need to manage the internet
’s risks while harnessing its potential.Caution and patience must be used to address these subtle issues. Wisdom and open discussions are needed to fathom out the cross border between reasonable regulation and outright restriction. Every action, if being taken, should establish its legitimacy through the rule of law. Last year, several important regulations were issued by competent authorities to create a framework for better development and utilization of the Internet.
Among the regulations the most basic one is the
"Regulation on Telecommunication Operation " issued by the State Council in September, 2000. It categorizes telecommunications operation into two terms: the "basic telecom services", including the services of providing public infrastructure, transferring public data and of basic voice communication; and the "value-added telecom services", including all other operations based on the basic telecom services. All the Internet services, except for the construction and operation of Internet backbones, are regarded as "value-added telecom services", such as ISP, ICP, email, EDT, and e-business.According to this regulation, the market of
"value-added telecom services" is much more open than that of the basic services. For example, no minimum domestic ownership of a company is required for value-added services, while a minimum 51% domestic ownership of a basic service company is a prerequisite. Another big difference is in the time required for getting licensed. For basic services, you must wait up to 180 days to be certified a license, while for value-added services it takes no more than 60 days.Another well-known document, which was also issued by the State Council at about the same time, is the
"Management Methods on Internet Content Services". But this regulation is very loose. For example, nobody needs a license to provide content services. They are just required to submit some files to relevant authorities for the record. As a matter of fact, it can be said that the issuing of this Management Method has cleared the doubt that China might have introduce rigid regulations on Internet Content Services. Son now one can rest assured that the content service market is an very open one and will remain so.Later the Ministry of Information Industry issued more detailed implementing rules focusing on Bulletin Board Service(BBS)
"and singled out the BBS from other Internet content services where some specific rules would apply. You do need an approval from the national or local telecommunication administrations to start your BBS, and it may take you up to 60 days to get licensed.In all the three documents of regulation or management rules, it is explicitly prohibited to disseminate certain information or
"content" on the Internet, Including such content that stirs up racial and ethnic hatred, advocates evil cult or feudal superstitions, spreads rumors which can lead to social disorder, or contains or promotes obscenity, pornography, gambling, or activities of violence and terrorism.The decision to ban such content is based on the judgement of rationality and protecting of human rights, and it is also shaped by the traditional Chinese values. I understand that governments around the world are trying to find reasonable ways to guide the wild ride of the Internet, including the flush of overwhelming amount of information on it, some of which might be regarded as
"extreme" and "unacceptable" according to their respective values. The important question is how to regulate the internet industry in a way that creates an environment conducive to rapid internet growth compliant with their relevant rules. So let me close my remarks by asking that we work together, through intensive communication and mutual understanding, to explore the unknown area of governments' role , so that the internet can deliver its full commercial benefits in this new world of knowledge economy.Thank you very much!